The Schnapsen Log

As Luck Would Have It (solution)

Martin Tompa

The marriage brings Lore’s trick point score up to 61, so you cannot afford to duck her ♦Q, even with ♦J. This hand appears to be straightforward. Winning your ♦A and cashing ♣T will give you enough trick points to win the deal.

The only thing that can possibly go wrong with this plan is if ♣J is in the stock, which would put you on lead in this position:

Lore: (61 points)
♠ J
♥ AK
♣ —
♦ TK

You: (60 points)
♠ —
♥ T
♣ TKJ
♦ J

In this case, unfortunately, you can no longer cash ♣T, and in fact you have no winners left in your hand. ♣J is the only bad draw from the stock for you, though, so you have a 4/5 probability of succeeding. (Remember, you know that ♦K is in Lore’s hand, so there are only 5 possible cards remaining for the stock, of which 4 are good for you.)

That’s not a bad plan, but can you protect yourself against that one unlucky draw from the stock, knowing how unlucky you have been lately? Yes, you can, with a ducking ruff. There is no rush to use your ♦A, since you know for a certainty that Lore still holds ♦K in her hand. And there is no point in saving that ♥T, which isn’t a winner anyway. Trump Lore’s ♦Q with ♥T, draw the ♣J from the stock if that is your fate, and then cash ♦A to win the deal.

This ducking ruff is another example of a safety play, protecting yourself against a small probability of failure. But as luck would have it, Peter did order the last piece of Linzertorte while you figured it out.

© 2012 Martin Tompa. All rights reserved.

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