The Schnapsen Log

Desperate Straits (solution)

Martin Tompa

The imminent danger is your vulnerable ♣T. One club trick will be enough for Itell to win the deal and game and knock you out of the tournament. If Itell wins the current trick, the stock will be exhausted and all he has to do is cash his ♣A.

And what can you lead that he won’t win? Only ♦T, the master trump. If you do that, what are you then hoping to draw from the stock? Even if you draw ♦K, this will be the situation with you on lead:

Itell: (48 points)
♠ TQ
♥ T
♣ A
♦ J

You: (26 points)
♠ AKJ
♥ —
♣ T
♦ K

You can cash ♦K and ♠A, but then ♣A finishes you. If you were to draw ♣A from the stock instead (getting that threat out of Itell’s hand), the situation is worse:

Itell: (48 points)
♠ TQ
♥ T
♣ —
♦ KJ

You: (26 points)
♠ AKJ
♥ —
♣ AT
♦ —

Your ♣T will be trumped and Itell’s ♥T will finish you instead.

If the threatening ♣A is in the stock, though, what about leading ♣T instead of ♦T, denying Itell the chance to cash ♣A? He will trump ♣T, putting him on lead from this position:

Itell: (62 points)
♠ TQ
♥ T
♣ AQ
♦ —

You: (13 points)
♠ AKJ
♥ —
♣ —
♦ TJ

This looks better, as Itell has no winners to cash. Until you think for a moment about what will happen next. He’ll lead something that you have to trump, and you will be endplayed, forced eventually to open up the spade suit.

Ready to pack your bag and go home? There’s nothing you can lead.

The trouble is that you’re thinking about this deal all wrong. Remember my earlier advice: when you are on lead at the last trick before the stock is exhausted, the very first thing to consider is closing the stock, because it simplifies the situation somewhat.

If you close the stock, it is still no good to hope that pesky ♣A is face-down in the stock:

Itell: (48 points)
♠ TQ
♥ T
♣ Q
♦ K

You: (13 points)
♠ AKJ
♥ —
♣ T
♦ T

Cashing ♦T, ♣T, and ♠A would only bring your total to 54 trick points. The alternative would be to lead ♠J to set up your ♠K as a winner. But Itell will win with ♠T and then lead ♥T for a forcing defence. You will lose trump control and only get to 60 trick points before giving in to Itell’s ♦K.

No, once you close the stock, your only hope is to be able to run that long spade suit without giving up the lead, which means you’re hoping a spade remains face-down in the stock. Not just any spade, but specifically ♠Q:

Itell: (48 points)
♠ T
♥ T
♣ AQ
♦ K

You: (13 points)
♠ AKJ
♥ —
♣ T
♦ T

You draw Itell’s trump with ♦T and cash three spade tricks, bringing your trick point total to 67. It is critical that Itell holds ♠T, because if it’s in the stock instead of ♠Q, you won’t amass enough trick points.

It’s a lot to hope for that the last face-down card is specifically ♠Q. You have only a 1/6 probability of success. (1/5 if you know ♦K or ♣Q is in Itell’s hand because of an earlier trump exchange or declared marriage, 1/4 if you know both.) This is another example of a desperation play. But you are indeed desperate and have no other options, so you close the stock, draw his trump, tremulously lead ♠A, and … you can stop holding your breath when Itell reluctantly drops ♠T on the table. You live to fight another day.

© 2012 Martin Tompa. All rights reserved.

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